Will people move for climate change?

No, but they will for another reason.

Experts have long predicted that climate change will cause Americans to migrate — some as informed citizens looking to prevent future hardship, others after a disaster that ravages their home. There are stories of people moving to Minnesota and Michigan in preparation for the coming heat that will kill us. There are countless stories claiming that the “next American migration” is upon us and that “climate change will force a new American migration.” But the real trend, at least for now, is the opposite of what was predicted — people are moving towards disaster.

Florida — which has experienced hurricanes in 154 of the last 172 years — was the country’s fastest growing state in 2022. Phoenix, which has average high temperatures north of 100 degrees in June and July and is seeing a record-breaking month of 110+ temperatures, sees 150 people move there every single day. Austin, which is currently experiencing 18 consecutive days (and counting) of 100+ heat, gains 120 people daily.

According to a Redfin study published this week, nearly half of Americans moving to these risky areas believe that climate change will affect the future value of their homes — but they evidently don’t care.

“It’s human nature to focus on current benefits, like waterfront views or a low cost of living, over costs that could rack up in the long run, like property damage or a decrease in property value,” said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. “It’s also human nature to discount risks that are tough to measure, like climate change.” 

But it’s also possible that the media vastly underestimates Americans’ determination to live in their communities of choice, no matter the consequences — everything from our obsession with remote work to the prevailing NIMBYist sentiment speaks to this.