Five takeaways from the latest Census update
What Philadelphia and Miami have in common, why Maine is dying and the Midwest is not dead yet, and wins for New Urbanism
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The latest Census figures are in. I’m sorry to say that many of our country’s biggest cities — NYC, LA, CHI, PHL, Dallas and San Diego — are still losing people. These figures are not unanticipated — check out this post from last year where I make a bunch of predictions about the country’s population, and I forecast many cities seeing declining populations.
But while declines in big urban areas are not surprising, the Census data did have other facts that show the U.S. population is shifting in some new, somewhat surprising directions. Below I’ll share five insights based on what I’ve gleaned from the data.
The “Return of the Rust Belt” that I called out at the start of the year continues to be a story. And although the Northeast continues to lose population, the exodus is slowing.
Areas which experienced high levels of domestic out-migration during the pandemic, such as in the Midwest and Northeast, are now seeing more counties with population growth. Meanwhile, county population growth is slowing down out west, such as in Arizona and Idaho.
This was the first time since 2020 that more counties in the Midwest had population gains (542) than losses (513). Diving into the population tables, a lot of the growth does not look urban. That said, a few smaller cities are in counties that are growing populations, such as Albany and Saratoga in New York, Columbus in Ohio, and Lancaster in Pennsylvania, among others.
Rather than wholesale losing people, the Northeast may be starting to plateau.
While the Northeast still had more counties losing (113) than gaining (105) population in 2023, population loss among its counties moderated compared to the previous year. The average annual change among the region's 218 counties slowed from -0.24% to -0.07% in 2023. The number of counties with population increases rose from 83 in 2022 to 105 in 2023.
In case you think that the good news for the Northeast/Midwest means that the South is no longer growing, you’re wrong. The South’s growth not only continues, but accelerates.
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