5 New Narratives About the Housing Market

It's a post-post-pandemic market

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Ever since the pandemic, we have been hearing the same old narratives about the national housing market over and over again. They go something like this: Housing inventory is extremely low, new listings are flying off the market, everyone is moving to the Sunbelt, we’re not building enough housing, and extreme price appreciation is inevitably going to continue.

While these takes have been largely true for the past several years, each one of them is starting to shift. Some are now actually false. We need new narratives about what is happening in the housing market to accurately represent what is happening as of 2024. The data is piling up to show that the market we’re in now is a departure from that of the past four years.

Below I’ll explore five new narratives:

The housing market is no longer a seller’s market

For the past few years, there has been an assumption that because inventory is low, it’s a seller’s market. This is no longer really true.

While inventory is still 33 percent lower than pre-pandemic times, housing inventory is now nearly 23 percent higher than it was a year ago.

And inventory is staying on the market for longer. According to Redfin: “Nearly two-thirds (64.7%) of homes that were on the market in June had been listed for at least 30 days without going under contract. That’s up from 59.6% a year earlier, marking the biggest annual increase in a year, and the highest share of any June since 2020.” 

Moreover, housing prices are starting to be questioned. As a result, Zillow reports that nearly 1 in 4 sellers has had to cut their sales prices.

The South’s real estate market is no longer booming

One of the big narratives from the pandemic was that Florida and Texas were just reeling in people from overpriced cities on the coasts. While they may continue to attract people, their real estate markets have shifted.

According to Redfin, which categorizes markets as “seller-friendly”, “neutral,” or “buyer-friendly,” all of the major markets in the South except Dallas and Raleigh are either neutral or buyer-friendly already.

In particular, Florida and Texas are seeing the biggest increases in unsold inventory. In Tampa, Jacksonville, and Orlando about 70 percent of houses have been unsold on the market for more than 30 days. In Ft. Lauderdale, it’s 77 percent.

Factors that could account for this situation include plenty of new construction completion, rising costs due to insurance, and a decline in migration rates to these states.

When you look at Realtor.com’s hottest markets, they’re all in the Northeast and Midwest. And they’ve been that way for nine consecutive months. Return of the Rust Belt anyone?

I’ll explore three more new narratives about housing past the paywall.